Forecasting Solutions Project Process

Слайд 2

The Project Process

Examine data for underlying trends, seasonality

*If technically needed or requested

The Project Process Examine data for underlying trends, seasonality *If technically needed
by client

Customisation*

1

step

2

step

3

step

Sales Forecast System

Слайд 3

Decomposition of the sales data based on the observed influences, setting «coefficients»

1

step

Base

Decomposition of the sales data based on the observed influences, setting «coefficients»
Sales

Volume Trend Decomposition

(x1000)

Sales Forecast System

Слайд 4

* e.g. “weather” scenarios (avg t° from the last 3-4 years ,

* e.g. “weather” scenarios (avg t° from the last 3-4 years ,
avg + or – 2°C)

Forecast the economic and other category variables

2

step

Inflation

# of SKU

Weather

Sales Forecast System

Слайд 5

Sales Forecast

Variables Forecast

Forecast base sales by segment using the past base sales
Then,

Sales Forecast Variables Forecast Forecast base sales by segment using the past
we applied the coefficients from the model to the forecasted influencers

Volume Trend Decomposition

(x1000)

Baseline forecast and decomposition of forecasted sales based on forecasted variables

3

step

+

Sales Forecast System

Слайд 6

Scenarios simulations

4

step

We change influences forecast at Step 2 and repeating Step 3

Scenarios simulations 4 step We change influences forecast at Step 2 and
and can see how category sales will react to this change and compare trends
What if during
next summer
temperature is
+5oC higher?

Example of
scenario:

Weather Forecast Current

Sales Forecast Current

Weather Forecast Scenario

Sales Forecast Scenario

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

Sales Forecast System

Имя файла: Forecasting-Solutions-Project-Process-.pptx
Количество просмотров: 178
Количество скачиваний: 1