Real Estate Market Analysis Basic Principles

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Real Estate Market Analysis

Studies that Focus on the Market
Analysis of Local Economic

Real Estate Market Analysis Studies that Focus on the Market Analysis of
Conditions
Study of the fundamental determinates of the demand for all real estate in the market
Market Analysis
Study of the demand for a particular property type
A site in search of a Use
A Use in Search of a Site

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Real Estate Market Analysis

Marketability Analysis
Study of a specific development or property to

Real Estate Market Analysis Marketability Analysis Study of a specific development or
assess its competitive position
Studies That Focus on Individual Decisions
Feasibility Analysis
Evaluates a specific project as to whether or not it is likely to be carried out successfully
Investment Analysis
Evaluates a specific property as a potential investment. Investor specific.

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Overview of Market Analysis Components

Two Major Study (Question) Types
1. A Site in

Overview of Market Analysis Components Two Major Study (Question) Types 1. A
Search of a Use
2. A Use in Search of a Site

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Overview of Market Analysis Components

The Study Process
1. What attributes does the subject

Overview of Market Analysis Components The Study Process 1. What attributes does
property offer to the market?
2. Who are the potential, typical users/most likely purchasers of the subject?
Most Probable Buyer Analysis

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Overview of Market Analysis Components

3. Is the property use needed?
Demand Analysis
Population ⇒

Overview of Market Analysis Components 3. Is the property use needed? Demand
Households ⇒ Housing Units
Income ⇒ Effective Buying Power ⇒ Retail Sq. Ft.
Jobs ⇒ % Use Office ⇒ Office Sq. Ft.
Jobs ⇒ % Use Industrial ⇒ Industrial Sq. Ft.

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Overview of Market Analysis Components

4. What is the Competition?
Supply Analysis
5. Analysis comparing

Overview of Market Analysis Components 4. What is the Competition? Supply Analysis
demand and supply
Equilibrium Analysis
How much rent can be charges?
Is the location competitive?
Are the property attributes competitive?
How much of the demand can be captured?

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Overview of Market Analysis Components

6. Subjects marketability
Capture Analysis
7. Does the subject make

Overview of Market Analysis Components 6. Subjects marketability Capture Analysis 7. Does
financial sense?
Is it a good investment?
What is its market value?
Is the property’s value more than its cost?
I.e.: is there any entrepreneurial reward for the risk?
Feasibility Analysis and/or Highest and Best Use

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Step 1: Define the Product Property Productivity Analysis

A. Physical Attributes
B. Legal and Regulatory

Step 1: Define the Product Property Productivity Analysis A. Physical Attributes B.
Attributes
Private
Public
C. Location Attributes
Identification of economic attributes – the association between land uses and their linkages
Identification of the movement of demand in relation to the direction of urban growth

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Step 1: Define the Product Property Productivity Analysis

Analysis of Urban Growth Structure
Pattern, Direction

Step 1: Define the Product Property Productivity Analysis Analysis of Urban Growth
and Rate
Analysis of factors influencing urban growth structure
Natural, Manufactured and Political
Identification of competition and comparison of location advantages and disadvantages between competition and subject

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Step 1: Define the Product Property Productivity Analysis

D. Market appeal Attributes:
Identification of specific

Step 1: Define the Product Property Productivity Analysis D. Market appeal Attributes:
features such as design or amenities that appeal to market participants

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Step 2: Define the Users Market Delineation

A. Market area concepts
Time-distance concepts
Area over which

Step 2: Define the Users Market Delineation A. Market area concepts Time-distance
equally desirable, substitute properties tend to compete with the subject
B. Geographic Market Delineation
C. Identification of Characteristics of Most Probable User (consumer profile)

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Step 3: Forecast Demand Factors

A. Major demand types
Population creates households
Income creates retail

Step 3: Forecast Demand Factors A. Major demand types Population creates households
buying power
Employment creates office and industrial users
B. Tastes and preferences: behavioral, motivational, and psychological factors
C. Demand segmentation

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Step 4: Inventory and Forecast Competitive Supply

A. Existing stock of competitive properties
B.

Step 4: Inventory and Forecast Competitive Supply A. Existing stock of competitive
Potential competition
Proposed construction
Probable additional construction
C. Factors influencing completion of potential competition
Land availability and costs
Interest Rates
Material and labor costs
Entrepreneurship

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Step 5: Analyze the Interaction of Supply and Demand

Residual Demand Study
A. Competitive

Step 5: Analyze the Interaction of Supply and Demand Residual Demand Study
environment
B. Residual Demand Concepts

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Marginal Demand Analysis

Marginal Demand Analysis

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Step 6: Forecast Subject Capture

A. Capture rate and absorption period for subject

Step 6: Forecast Subject Capture A. Capture rate and absorption period for
property
B. Risk Analysis
C. Reconciliation of market analysis and conclusions

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Market Analysis Levels

Inferred Demand Studies
Levels A and B
Emphasis is on knowledge and

Market Analysis Levels Inferred Demand Studies Levels A and B Emphasis is
historical data
Fundamental Demand Studies
Levels C and D
Emphasis is on quantifiable data and forecasting

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Level A Market Analysis

Draws on readily available regional and city data, a

Level A Market Analysis Draws on readily available regional and city data,
general area description provides the backdrop for the comparable property data used to represent market conditions
Analyses are more descriptive than analytical
Historically oriented rather than future oriented
Rent and comparable sales are relied upon

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Level A Market Analysis

A. Property productivity analysis
Physical attributes
Legal attributes
Location attributes
B. Supply and

Level A Market Analysis A. Property productivity analysis Physical attributes Legal attributes
demand analysis
Demand
Supply

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Level A Market Analysis

C. Marketability/equilibrium analysis/highest and best use conclusions
Focuses on use

Level A Market Analysis C. Marketability/equilibrium analysis/highest and best use conclusions Focuses
conclusions
Timing based on analysts feel for the market
Improved Properties
Use and timing for property use
Vacant land or land as though vacant
Use – Usually uses permitted by current zoning
Timing – Considered immediate

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Level B Market Analysis

Relies upon broadly based surveys of the market for

Level B Market Analysis Relies upon broadly based surveys of the market
estimating supply and demand
Uses quantifiable data as a basis for judgments about highest and best use and timing

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Level B Market Analysis

A. Property productivity
Physical Attributes
Legal Attributes
Includes a check for deed

Level B Market Analysis A. Property productivity Physical Attributes Legal Attributes Includes
restrictions, easements, and other legal attributes
Location attributes
B. Supply and demand analysis

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Level B Market Analysis

C. Marketability/equilibrium analysis/highest and best use
Uses specific quantifiable data

Level B Market Analysis C. Marketability/equilibrium analysis/highest and best use Uses specific
for use and timing
Employs data that relate to timing of demand – timing becomes function of demand relative to supply

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Regional Sales Trends

Regional Sales Trends

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Regional Sales Trends

Regional Sales Trends

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Regional Sales Trends

Regional Sales Trends

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Regional Sales Trends

Regional Sales Trends

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Level C Market Analysis

Employs fundamental forecasting techniques
Can discern whether there is an

Level C Market Analysis Employs fundamental forecasting techniques Can discern whether there
excess or supply, an excess of demand, or a balanced market

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Level C Market Analysis

A. Property productivity analysis
Physical attributes – same as level

Level C Market Analysis A. Property productivity analysis Physical attributes – same
B
Legal attributes – same as level B
Location attributes
Analyzed with a location rating grid to provide some quantified analysis of the subject’s competitive position

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Level C Market Analysis

B. Supply and demand analysis
Uses future oriented forecasting techniques

Level C Market Analysis B. Supply and demand analysis Uses future oriented
for forecasting demand and supply
C. Marketability/equilibrium analysis/highest and best use conclusions
Probable use
Probable use of vacant land

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Level C Market Analysis

Level C Market Analysis

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Level D Market Analysis

Usually handled by professional real estate market analysts
A. Property

Level D Market Analysis Usually handled by professional real estate market analysts
productivity analysis
Includes detailed projections of probable future land uses
B. Supply and demand analysis
Forecasting demand and supply
C. Marketability/equilibrium analysis/highest and best use conclusions
Improved existing or proposed properties
Vacant land

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Summary Levels of Market Analysis

Inferred Demand Studies
Sub-Level: A & B
Infer subject attributes
Infer location

Summary Levels of Market Analysis Inferred Demand Studies Sub-Level: A & B
determinants of use & marketability by macro analysis

Fundamental Demand Studies
Sub-Level: C & D
Quantify subject attributes
Quantify and analyze location determinants of use & marketability by macro and micro analysis

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Summary Levels of Market Analysis

Inferred Demand Studies
Sub-Level: A & B
Infer demand by general

Summary Levels of Market Analysis Inferred Demand Studies Sub-Level: A & B
economic base analysis of others
Infer demand by selected comps

Fundamental Demand Studies
Sub-Level: C & D
Forecast demand by original economic base analysis
Forecast demand by subject specific market segment & demographic data

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Summary Levels of Market Analysis

Inferred Demand Studies
Sub-Level: A & B
Infer supply by selected

Summary Levels of Market Analysis Inferred Demand Studies Sub-Level: A & B
comps
Infer equilibrium highest and best use and capture conclusion

Fundamental Demand Studies
Sub-Level: C & D
Quantify supply by inventorying existing & forecasting planned competition
Quantify equilibrium
Graphic map use for H&BU
Timing – quantified capture forecast

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Summary Levels of Market Analysis

Inferred Demand Studies
Sub-Level: A & B
Emphasis is on:
Instinctive knowledge
Historical

Summary Levels of Market Analysis Inferred Demand Studies Sub-Level: A & B
Data

Fundamental Demand Studies
Sub-Level: C & D
Emphasis is on:
Quantifiable data
Forecast

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Criteria for Selecting Appropriate Level of Market Analysis

Prevailing Market Conditions on the Study

Criteria for Selecting Appropriate Level of Market Analysis Prevailing Market Conditions on
Date
Project Type
Project Size
Client Needs
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