Слайд 2FINANCIAL MARKETS AND
INTEREST RATES
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Слайд 3Market Players
An investor / lender is an individual, company, government, or any
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entity that owns more funds than it can use.
An issuer / borrower is an entity that has a need for capital.
Brokers and dealers are financial intermediaries, who purchase securities from issuers and sell them to investors
Слайд 4Securities
Debt security or bond – promises periodic payments of interest and/or principal
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from a claim on the issuer's earnings
Equity or stock – promises a share in the ownership and profits of the issuer
Слайд 5Types of Financial Markets
Money markets trade short-term, marketable, liquid, low-risk debt securities
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- "cash equivalents“
Capital markets trade in longer-term, more risky securities:
bond (or debt) markets,
equity markets,
derivative markets
Слайд 6INTEREST RATES
The stated or offered rate of
interest (r) reflects three factors:
Pure
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rate of interest (r*)
Premium that reflects expected inflation (IP)
Premium for risk (RP)
r = r* + IP + RP
Слайд 7Pure Interest Rate
the rate for a risk-free security when no inflation is
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expected
constantly changes over time, depending on economic conditions
Слайд 8Inflation
Investors build in an inflation premium to compensate for this loss of
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value
the inflation premium is not constant; it is always changing based on investors' expectations of the future level of inflation
Слайд 9Risk
Counterparty (default) risk is the chance that the borrower will not be
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able to pay the interest or pay off the principal of a loan.
Ratings companies identify and classify the creditworthiness of corporations and governments to determine how large the risk premium should be (AAA – CCC)
Слайд 10Risk
Liquidity risk – possible losses if there is no opportunity to buy
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or to sell assets at the proposed volume for the proposed price due to bad market conditions
Слайд 11Risk
Interest rate risk - possible changes of asset value due to changes
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of the interest rate:
As interest rates increase, bond prices decrease.
As interest rates decrease, bond prices increase.
Слайд 12Risk
Currency risk – possible changes of the assets value due to changes
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of the currency exchange rate.
Operational risk – possible losses due to possible technical mistakes.
Business-event risk – possible losses due to force-mageure events, changes in legislation, etc.
Слайд 13Normal Yield Curve Theories
upward sloping yield curve is considered normal:
expectations theory,
the
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market segmentation theory,
the liquidity preference theory
Слайд 14Expectations Theory
The yield curve reflects lenders' and borrowers' expectations of inflation
Changes in
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these expectations cause changes in the shape of the yield curve
Слайд 15Market Segmentation Theory
The slope of the yield curve depends on supply /
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demand conditions in the short-term and long-term markets
An upward sloping curve results from a large supply of funds in the short-term market relative to demand and a shortage of long-term funds.
A downward sloping curve indicates strong demand in the short-term market relative to the long-term market
Слайд 16Liquidity Preference Theory
long-term securities often yield more than short-term securities
Investors generally prefer
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short-term securities, which are more liquid and less expensive to buy and sell. Investors require higher yield on long-term instruments to compensate for the higher cost
Слайд 17Liquidity Preference Theory
Borrowers dislike short-term debt because it exposes them to the
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risk of having to roll over the debt or raise new principal under adverse conditions (such as a rise in rates). Borrowers will pay a higher rate for long-term debt than for short-term debt, all other factors being held constant.