Foreign Policy Analysis: perception, cognition , personality

Aims & Learning Objectives
Identify the key concepts of perception, cognition and personality and their influence on FP
Describe the process of FP decision making in group settings
Describe and discuss the impact that the psychological approach has on rational accounts of FP

The Role of Perception
Misperception & Images
Jervis says FP actors make decisions on the basis of their perceptions rather than objective reality (operational environment)
Boulding says FP actors employ ‘images’ (stereotypes, biases) to make decisions

The Role of Perception
Builds on ‘operational/psychological’ environment insight
Focuses on individual decision maker
Introduces notion of perception & distortions to ‘definition of the situation’
Product of FP decision makers unconscious, media bias & societal prejudices
Inherently dangerous and destabilising to int’l system

The Role of Cognition
Cognition, the process by which humans select & process information from world around them, introduces further distortions
Volume of information too much for one individual to process
Incomplete (and possibly inaccurate) information
Time-limits/pressures

A Morning in the Life of President Obama
MSNBC 3 June 2009
6:30 am see kids off to school
7-8 read nat’l security briefings & ‘4 or 5 newspapers’
8-8:30 answers 10 letters from US citizens
8:30-11 senior staff meetings (topics for 3/6/09)
Nat’l security briefing; Nat’l Economic Council for update on bail out of auto industry; meeting w/ congressional liaison officer on status of legislation health, budget, and WH initiative banning tobacco ads for kids
11-11:30 public function to discuss network security
11:30-12 public function to discuss hurricane preparedness across town
12-12:30 lunch at hamburger stand & return to WH
13-13:30 interview with media

The Role of Cognition
FP decision makers seek ‘cognitive consistency’ and, in filtering out contrary data, experience ‘cognitive dissonance’ between their images and reality
‘Satisficing’ (Simon) and ‘muddling through’ (Lindblom)
Sub-optimal decision making is the outcome

The Role of Cognition
FP decision makers have a ‘cognitive map’ that combines perception, biases, understanding of ‘historical lessons’ which they apply to task of decision making (Axelrod)
‘Operational code’ set of prior rules & perceptions used to assess situations & make decisions (George)

The Role of Personality
Individual leaders’ personalities differ in response to FP challenges & choices
Leaders are emotional beings who seek to resolve internal decision making conflicts (Janis & Mann)
Role of emotions in crises, stress, inability to abstract or tolerate ambiguity
‘Tunnel vision’, a fixation on single solutions

The Role of Personality
Psychological profiling of leaders, analysing the origins of their behaviour as clues to their actions, becomes a necessity
‘Operational code’/cognitive map applicable to study of leaders
Role of history

The Role of the Group
FP decision making environment is not solely individual but takes place in a group context
Group decision making overcomes some cognitive concerns (volume of information, tunnel vision)
However, Janis’s studies show problem of ‘Group think’ – tendency of individuals to seek consensus when operating in a group even at the expense of own particular view
Optimal solution diluted to maintain group consensus

The Role of the Group
Overcoming ‘Group Think’
Review decisions
Change leaders of working groups
‘Devil’s Advocate’
Beyond Groupthink (t Hart et al)
Groups can act as think tank (info/problem solver), command centre (central policy coordinator), arena (bureau., cabinet, party politics), sorter (organising work/outcomes), smokescreen (concealing informal groups), ideologue (representing org. or community values)

The Role of the Group
Patterns of group decision making determined by nature of group. These are (Stern/Sundelius)
Conformity
Conflictual
Hybrids

Critique of Psychological Approach
Strong critique of individual & group decision making but overemphasises ‘psychological’ environment at expense of ‘operational environment
Other levels of analysis important to decision making than individual & group, e.g., bureaucracy, institutions, external
Social construction of ‘images’ & perceptions means focus on individual misguided

Critique of Psychological Approach
Cognitive consistency versus belief system stability
Schema theory – cognitive structures with the minds of individuals are complex and beliefs less coherent than ‘cognitive consistency’ idea suggests (Rosati)
While key beliefs may hold, change may result due to learning, role change, traumatic events
FW de Klerk and ending apartheid in South Africa

Critique of Psychological Approach
‘Role’ more important than personality in decision making (‘office makes the man’)
Difficult to assess the actual impact of personal history on a contemporary decision

Conclusion

Foreign Policy Analysis:
Role of Culture in Diplomacy
Dr Chris Alden
LSE

The Role of Culture in Diplomacy
Problems of negotiation are cross-cultural
Cultural meanings are subjective meanings shared by members of cultural group: confusion therefore liable between these groups
How to bridge cultural gaps in handling sensitive foreign policy issues?

Ting-Toomey ‘Face Negotiation Theory’
Communication in all cultures is based on maintaining and negotiating face.
Differences in individualistic vs. collectivistic and small vs. large power distance cultures profoundly shape face management.
People from large power distance cultures accept unequal power distributions, are reliant on established hierarchy, and understand that rewards and sanctions are based on social position (hierarchical)
People from small power distance cultures value equal power distributions, symmetric relations, and rewards and sanctions based on performance (equality).
Behavior is also influenced by cultural variances, individual, relational, and situational factors.
Competence in intercultural communication is a culmination of knowledge and mindfulness.

The Role of Culture in Diplomacy
High context cultures: communicates allusively rather than directly, hierarchical
as important as explicit content of message is the context in which it occurs, surrounding non-verbal cues and hinted at nuances of meaning.
language is social instrument and used carefully
most powerful sanction is disapproval ‘loss of face’

The Role of Culture in Diplomacy
Low context cultures: little implicit meaning is given to context of articulation, content is explicit
indirection is disliked, values ‘straight talk’/’get to the point’
distinction between social context and work/professional context
non-verbal meaningless
most powerful sanction is guilt

The Role of Culture in Diplomacy
Culture – real differences or ‘red herring’?
18th/19th century European elites managed through language, social background
Same could be said of relative close cultural convergence in Arab world, Sinosphere etc
Notably did not halt warfare, trade disputes