Volcanism generated ocean heat waves and biodiversity

Plan
Background information
Four regional examples of ocean heat waves studied – 2012 North Atlantic Blob
2013-2016 North Pacific Blob
2018-2019 Southwest Indian Ocean Blob
2019-2020 South Pacific Blob
Conclusions

Possible factors controlling ocean heat waves?
Air circulation/pressure changes (heat redistribution)
Greenhouse gases mainly –
Carbon dioxide CO2
Methane CH4
Water vapour H2O (most important)
Water/cloud/ice distribution
Vegetation distribution
Ocean circulation changes
Astronomical factors e.g. sun & orbital changes
Submarine volcanic eruptions/lava flows into oceans
Heat generation through human activities

What is the order of importance?
1st order
Astronomical forcing and the Sun e.g. glacial/interglacial cycles, solar cycles, monsoons and seasons
2nd order
Volcanism generated geothermal heat/plate climatology
www.plateclimatology.com
How geological forces affect the hydrosphere and atmosphere including terrestrial and submarine volcanic eruptions, their associated circulation changes and the release of gases
3rd order
Human-induced changes including urbanization, water cycle changes and emissions of greenhouse gases

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO
Sea-surface temperature variabilitY

Satellite observations since the late 1970s
NASA’s A-Train including CALIOP vertical profiles of aerosols

ARGO ocean network of operational floats since early 2000s

An irregularly periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, coupled with the sea temperature change: El Niño is accompanied by high air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific and La Niña with low air surface pressure there.
What is ENSO?
El Niño Southern Oscillation
Note – Pre-industrial era existence shown by coral archives.
Southern Oscillation Index time series 1876-2017
pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti
Source: Wiki

Why ENSOs occur in the Pacific?
Note – Volcanism within the ocean basins currently comprises 70% of Earth’s magma output.

Classification of volcanic eruptions*
(1) Sub-aerial / terrestrial
- switches on hot air followed by cooling (atmospheric warming, injection of ash, gases and aerosols, blockage of shortwave radiation, cloud formation, pressure changes, moisture redistribution, continental cooling, ozone depletion, circulation changes, severe weather)
(2) Submarine / sea floor
switches on hot seawater (cause of sea-surface temperature anomalies, pressure changes, circulation changes, moisture redistribution, continental warming, severe weather events including cyclones)
(3) Mixed
- initially submarine later sub-aerial (combination of 1 and 2).
* Magmatic composition also important.

↑
→
←
Thermal plume
Cooler air
Warm air
stores more
moisture –
water vapour
redistribution
Air pressure
changes (low)
Cool air
stores less
moisture
El Chichón, Mexico 1982
Eruption
changes
normal air
circulation /
creats clouds
/ destroys O3
Ash & aerosols
reduce solar
radiation
leading to
cooling
Impact longer
lasting if
higher VEI
SO2, HCl
CO2 & H2O
degassing
Sub-aerial
volcano
model
USGS
Cooling
Circled the globe in 21 days

Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)
8
Above VEI 2
regional impacts
on weather
already detectable
Used for the estimation of explosiveness of
volcanic eruptions
on land (subaerial)
(Newhall and Self 1982)
Acid magma
most explosive
E-15, 2010

Why study the present day? e.g. Iceland 2010 event
Most reliable record – Information age
Importance – societal e.g.
farming, climate model testing
( Meteorological observations
( Satellite observations since ~1980
( Weather disaster media reports
( Aviation safety studies
Eyjafjallajökull (E-15)
April 14, 2010 eruption Impact – Slovakia wettest
year since 1881

Weather chart showing the impact of the E15 eruption on April 29, 2010 wettest year in Slovakia
Hurbanovo 1881-2010 (Peccho et al. 2011)

Submarine volcano model
Examples –
El Hierro volcano, Canary islands 10/2011 – 3/2012
Nishinoshima, 940 km south of
Tokyo 3/2013-9/2015
Off Mayotte 11/2018-4/2019
Possible effects –
Heating up seawater
Pressure changes
Surface wind changes
Sea-level changes
Ocean current changes
Polar sea ice changes
Biodiversity changes
Switching on hot seawater
basaltic lavas ~1200oC
NASA
El Hierro
Warming

Statistics on submarine volcanoes
Total number ~1 million
Number rising 1 km from seabed 75,000
Magma output in oceanic ridges 75%
Active submarine volcanoes ~5000
Important facts –
Geothermal heat is released during eruptions changing the ‘normal’
ocean circulation
Known for volcanic ecosystems

The discoloured water was at least 20-30 km wide and 100 km long
Spread southward
Source: Luis Somoza et al. (2017)
Source: Eugenio et al. (2014)
El Hierro submarine eruption, Canary Islands
October 2011-March 2012

What was the observed impact of the hot seawater
in the North Atlantic Basin overlooked by
atmospheric scientists?
Brownish plume created
Source: Daily mail reporter (2011)
A new island emerged briefly from the sea
along the coast of Restinga, Canary Islands
Source: Daily Mail

North Atlantic Blob – combined effect
of the Sun and El Hierro on SST on 28 June 2012
Greater warm seawater penetration
El Hierro
10/2011-3/2012

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Date Affected region Events or pattern
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
April-July England and Wales Wettest summer in 100 years with annual rainfall of 1331 mm (115% above average)
and severe flooding
May-August Central North America Drought estimated damage US$30 billion; most severe since 1895
Summer Arctic Ocean Record low sea ice
Summer Northern/central Europe Abnormally wet summer with moisture able to penetrate the continental interiors
June-November US east coast Extremely active hurricane season, tied with 1887, 1995, 2010 and 2011 for having the
third-most named storms on record but few made landfall
July Virginia Hottest on record
July Greenland Period of extended surface melting across almost the entire ice sheet
July-October Western/central Africa Abnormally wet with flood conditions
October US east coast Hurricane Sandy estimated damage US$65 billion; 147 fatalities
October North Atlantic Tropical storm Nadine tied record for the longest lasting Atlantic storm
November England Wettest week in last 50 years with severe flooding
Winter US east coast Abnormally cool and wet due to the active polar airstream
Winter British isles Abnormally cold due to the active polar airstream
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Weather-related events or pattern in the North Atlantic Basin during 2012

Notable severe weather events in 2012
Hurricane Sandy October 2012
147 fatalities; estimated damage US$65 billion
New records for England & Wales –
wettest summer in 100 years
wettest week in last 50 years
explained by increase in storms
20-27 November
tweets on UK
flooding

2012-2016 volcanic eruptions in the Pacific
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Date Volcano Activity
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
7/2012 Havre, north of Largest deep-ocean silicic eruption of the past century with a 400 km2 pumice
New Zealand raft, lava sourced from 14 vents 900-1220 m depth
3/2013- Nishino-shima, Eruption was initially submarine until a new island appeared in November
9/2015 940 km South 2013
of Tokyo
12/2014- Hunga, Initially submarine until a new island was created
1/2015 Tonga
5/2015- Wolf, Basaltic lava flows into the Pacific Ocean
6/2015 Galapagos
7/2016- Kilauea, Basaltic lava flows into the Pacific Ocean
onwards Hawaii
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Havre July 18-19, 2012 - largest silicic submarine eruption of the past century 14 vents 900 to 1220 m depth (Carey et al. 2018)

Nishino-shima submarine/terrestrial eruption
940 km south of Tokyo
March 2013 to August 2015
Image on November 13, 2013: Japan Coast Guard
Submarine eruption began in March 2013
Image on December 8, 2013: NASA

Main trigger of 2014-2016 ENSO
sea-surface temperature anomalies created the
North Pacific Blob on January 2, 2014
Blob
Nishino-shima eruption 3/2013-8/2015
Blob

Events linking the Blob to the Nishino-shima eruption
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Date Nishino-shima eruption activity Northern Pacific Blob
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
March 2013 Hot seawater first appeared Initial warming in the northwest Pacific
November Appearance of a new island Initial Blob 800 km wide and 91 m deep
2013
December Island rose 20 to 25 m above sea level with -
2013 an area of 5.6 km2
February - Temperature was around 2.5oC above normal
2014
June 2014 - Name ‘Blob’ coined by Nicholas Bond,
Blob size reached 1600 km x 1600 km and 91 m deep
spread to coastal North America with three patches
off Alaska, Victoria/California and Mexico
December Island nearly 2.3 km in diameter and 2014 year without winter western Pacific coast
2014 rose to about 110 m above sea level major biodiversity impacts including algal bloom
January- Volcanic eruption continued with episodic Continuation of biodiversity impacts with sustained
August lava flows toxic bloom in Monterey Bay
2015
Early - Blob persisted and ended
2016
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Date
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Blob separated into three parts
on September 1, 2014
1
2
3
Ocean circulation
Warm water build up in slack
areas of gyres
Arctic sea ice retreat
Kuroshio
weakening
Antarctic sea ice expansion

Pressure distribution during the North Pacific Blob
NOAA
Ridiculously
Resilient
Ridge
2014 and 2015
two years with
extraordinary
mild winters
Polar
vortex

Heat wave
National Geographic
September 2016
Dead sea lion

Dying sea otter
Mass mortality of sea otters
Starving sea lion pups
Carcass of orca

Food pattern change
for octopus
Dying eel
Mass mortality of crabs
Spawning squids off Alaska

Beached sperm whale
Humpback whale in Monterey Bay
Jellyfish mass mortality
Sunfish migration

Ecosystem changes
Warm seawater much less nutrient rich than cold seawater
Impacts –
Reduction in coastal upwelling
Reduction in phytoplankton productivity with knock on effects on
zooplankton
Food chain effect
Salmon catches dropped drastically
Death of almost 1 million birds between summer 2015 to Spring 2016 (reported
by the Guardian on January 16, 2020)
Tropical organisms including squids migrated to Alaskian coast

Toxic algal bloom along the west coast of North America

Sea-surface temperature anomalies on
June 29, 2015 after the Wolf eruption ended
Wolf eruption
5-7/2015 with
lava flow entering
the ocean
Hunga eruption
12/2014-1/2015
Coral
bleaching

A natural cause of Great Barrier Reef
coral bleaching in January 2015
Note - Rise in ocean acidity caused by SO2 degassing may also be at work.

ENSO 2014-2016 was stronger because of the Blob
comparison of seawater temperature anomaly US west coast
Source: Tseng (2017)

Comparison of sea-level anomaly 1997 and 2015
Source: Jentoft-Nilsen (2015)

Comparison of ocean surface topography during El Niño 1997-1998 and 2015-2016
NASA

Eruption of Wolf volcano, Galapagos
late May to June 2015 VEI 4
NASA
thinkgalapagos.com
NASA
NASA

Establishment of the strong and long-lasting
2014-2016 El Niño August 31, 2015

Arctic sea ice changes 2007-2017
Explained by the release of geothermal heat through volcanism
(Source: Clutz 2017)
El Hierro
10/2011-
3/2012
Nishino-shima
3/2013-9/2015

Arctic sea ice extent 2007-2016
Source: National Snow & Ice Data Centre
Record minimum
Gradual decline

Influence on minimum Arctic sea ice extent
Winter 2014-2016
Summer 2014-2016
Source: NISDC.org

Ranking of Arctic monthly air temperatures 1979-2017
NOAA

New submarine volcanic eruption
discovered in the Mozambique Channel
November 2018-May 2019

Multibeam sonar waves, reflecting off the sea floor
southeast Mayotte, showing an 800-m-tall volcano
with a 5 km diameter anda rising gas-rich plume
Cause of
warming in
Southwest
Indian Ocean
Blob

Global map of sea-surface temperature anomalies on November 18, 2019
North
Pacific
Blob
Southwest
Indian Ocean Blob
North Pacific
Blob
Southwest
Indian Ocean
Blob
Record cyclone
season

Lateiki submarine eruption, Tonga
new island created November 7, 2019
Old island destroyed and replaced by a bigger new island

Global map of sea-surface temperature anomalies on November 21, 2019
Lateiki
submarine
eruption,
Tonga

Global map of sea-surface temperature anomalies on December 9, 2019
White
Island
eruption

Global map of sea-surface temperature anomalies on December 19, 2019
South
Pacific
Blob

Statistics of the South Pacific Blob
Marine heat wave east of New Zealand – High pressure, sunny sky and light wind
1 million square kilometers (size of Texas)
6 degree Celsius above normal
Total thickness of hot seawater 50 metres
Prof. J. Renwick – Heated by the sun through natural causes not by global warming

Marine heatwave brings tropical grouper from
3000 km away to New Zealand waters

Submarine volcanic eruptions contributing geothermal heat to the South Pacific Blob

Landsat images showing dramatic melting in the Eagle Island region of Antarctica on February 4, 2020 in comparison to February 13, 2020. Source: NASA

Map derived from the Goddard Earth Observing System model representing air temperatures at 2 m above the ground on February 9, 2020. Source: NASA.