New technologies will transform the global markets

The Youth Forum 2021
The Image of the Future we want: The Horizon - 2100
Leena Ilmola-Sheppard
New technologies will transform the global markets
- or will they?

Question
How technology will change the structure of the global markets?
What are the key uncertainties?
Two examples:
Platform ecosystems
Energy transition
2100

How to plan the the different domains of the probability distribution
Uncertainty with probability
Metro train uncertainty
Coconut uncertainty
Fundamental uncertainty
Black swans
Xevents
Strategic planning
Risk management
Resilience building

ENERGY TRANSITION

IEA May 2021

Energy Transition: Uncertainties….

Energy Transition: Examples of Enablers
Crowdfunding of local micro-grids or off-grid solutions, community ownership models
The smart grid software market reach a market size of US$23.180 billion by the year 2026. *)
Distributed energy resources (DERs) &
The Gartner reports in May 21** that the oil and gas companies are developing new business models, that digitally integrate different forms of energy
By applying AI enhanced digitalization of their downstream plant operations, BP had been able to improve efficiency by 8-12% (Forbes Nov 16, 2020)
**) https://emtemp.gcom.cloud/ngw/globalassets/en/information-technology/documents/trends/741394-top-10-trends-driving-the-oil-and-gas-industry-in-2021.pdf
*) https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5317971/smart-grid-software-market-forecasts-from-2021
New businesses of utilization of carbon emissions - DAC technology
Energy is a public good?

DIGITAL ECOSYSTEMS

How digitalization will change the structure of the global markets 1

How digitalization will change the structure of the global markets 2

How digitalization will change the structure of the global markets 3

Open platform ecosystems and resilience
…from Complex Adaptive Systems perspective
Uncertainties such as user behavior, technology, institutional environment

Open platform ecosystem
No centralized control, anyone can join
Network externalities grow exponentially ; fast growth,
Integrated innovation

Adaptation..
Open platform ecosystems are complex
Law of requisite variety > same level of complexity, complexity mismatch
Interaction is defining what is happening next
self-organization of structure and output
Automatic feedback loops