China Scenario ISR Collection Needs

The Use of ISR for an AOR

The Use of ISR for an AOR
Force Engagement
Events
Event A
Event B
D- ##
D- 35
D- 20
D- 3
D-10
D-1
D+1
D-Day
Event C
Event D
Event E
Observed Activities

USPACOM
USCENTCOM
USEUCOM
SBR Study – Simultaneous Scenarios

The China Scenario - 2010
The North Korean government is on the verge of total collapse
S. Korea is concerned President Kim Chong-il will initiate a war to divert the attention of his opposition
China is concerned a coup in N. Korea is possible and has declared N. Korean nuclear arms will never be controlled by S. Korea or the U.S.

The China Scenario – North Korea
USFK command structure directs all actions in the N. Korean crisis
National objectives:
Prevent the successful launch of a nuclear missile from N. Korea
Maintain the sovereignty of S. Korea
Deter a Chinese incursion into N. Korea
Operational objectives:
Position ISR & strike assets to detect and destroy any TBM launch from N. Korea
Position ISR and strike assets to detect and repulse a N. Korean incursion into S. Korean territory or airspace
Position ISR assets to detect Chinese force build up and intentions north of the Yalu River
Conduct high-visibility operations with strike assets to deter Chinese incursion into N. Korea
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Collection Priorities to Meet Objectives

MIT Lincoln Laboratory
The China Scenario – Taiwan Strait
JTF China Sea (JTFCS) formed to direct actions in Taiwan Strait – JFC is USN
National Objectives:
Deter PRC military aggression against the ROC
If deterrence fails, maintain ROC sovereignty through the use of conventional force
Execute operations to prevent the conflict escalation
Operational Objectives
Position ISR assets to identify/locate forces participating in the Taiwan Strait “demonstration”
Position ISR assets to confirm the PRC’s most likely Course of Action (COA)
Position strike assets to deter the PRC from taking an aggressive action against the ROC
Position strike assets to counter any aggressive act by PRC forces against the territory of the ROC

MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Collection Priorities to Meet Objectives

MIT Lincoln Laboratory
COA Determination by Dynamic Characterization
JFLCC Collection
Observe the type, level, and duration of activities at key garrison locations
ASPs, Transportation Depots, Debarkation Marshalling points
Track movement of key units (method, speed, direction)
Correlate activities and unit movement across the Area of Interest to help determine enemy COA

MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Collection Priorities to Meet Objectives
JFMCC Collection
Number and class of ships in port
Changes in level of activity at piers and supply depots
Track movement of ships once found
Subs, minelayers, amphib ships, CV, & SAGs
Identify shore-based ASuW missile sites and maintain their status
Extend fleet surveillance when requested

MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Collection Priorities to Meet Objectives
JFACC Collection
Identify IADS C2 nodes and SAM sites and maintain their status
Number and class of aircraft on the tarmac taken at random times or after specific events
Changes in level of activity at base weapon & fuel stores
New activity at FOLs
Support the identification of SRBM infrastructure and maintain their status

MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Collection Priorities to Meet Objectives

Taiwan Strait Timeline

Chinese Deployment Timeline
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Chinese Deployment Timeline
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Chinese Deployment Timeline
MIT Lincoln Laboratory

Chinese Deployment Timeline
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Fighters Disperse to FOBs