Foreign Policy Analysis: crisis and foreign policy

Aims and Learning Objectives
Identify the key features of crisis and their impact on foreign policy
Describe and define the importance of cognitive, psychological & heuristic factors in foreign policy decision making during crisies
Analyse the role of motivation in crises and their resolution

Crisis and Foreign Policy
I The Beginning of a Crisis
What is a foreign policy crisis?
Hermann: crises exist when the system declares that they do.
Threat to core values (survival, territory)
Elements consist of a convergence of time pressures, increased threat perception and genuine surprise

Crisis and Foreign Policy
II Impact of crisis on FP decision making
Janis & Mann: decision makers as emotional beings seeking to resolve internal decision conflict
Leads to stress, increased tendency towards aggressive behaviour, fixation on singular solutions (‘tunnel vision’)
Propensity to over-react to provocations (Holsti)

Crisis and Foreign Policy
Time pressures & int’l ramifications
Crisis highlights information shortage and overload as time does not allow for effective collection and processing
Problems of communication & rationality
Resolution of conflict depends on contact with opponent
Enforced choices
Sense of urgency & uncertainties translate into FP decision makers perceiving there are fewer options

Crisis and Foreign Policy
III The End of a Crisis
Possible outcomes: conquest, submission, compromise, award or passive settlement
Instruments & procedures:
Direct negotiations between parties
3rd party mediation
Adjudication & arbitration

Resolving Crisis and Foreign Policy
Key issue about crisis management: is it about ‘winning’ or ‘preventing conflict’?
‘Crisis management must address the tension between the two goals…the dilemmas of choice are glossed over by the use of the term “management” with its overtones of technical rationality and efficiency.’ (Richardson)